Dance with Chance.
I’m currently reading a book with the above title, as I’m profoundly interested in trying to figure out the interplay of luck/chance and the amount of control we do really have in life. It’s not much I think.
While reading it I came across an interesting statistic, which appears very timely seeing the politicians are interested in factors like prediction and control at present.
Japan has the highest rate of cigarette consumption in the Western world (big countries). In fact the place just billows so much cigarette smoke that one day the IPCC may well suggest an ETS of Japanese smoking obsession. ☺
Japan has also close to the highest if not the highest big western country longevity rates in the world too.
Statisticians find it awfully hard to find an answer to this glaring anomaly. Of course the possible answer could be diet related. However if that’s the case then smoking may not necessarily be the leading cause of death in the West that we’re often told it is. I’m just throwing this up, as I don’t really know and it is in no way a suggestion that anyone should take up the habit. This is particularly so since big stats doesn’t necessarily lead to individual fortune
Japan’s longevity and very high per capita smoking offers an interesting insight that lots of things are really non-linear. This is possibly food for thought as a large number of politicians try to peddle a huge government redistribution money grab under the pretext of saving the planet.
Things are usually not so simple.
A Long Day in Politics
They say a week can be a long time in politics, and this past week has certainly showed that pretty well. But there’s more to life than the Liberal leadership, so here’s a roundup of items you might have missed:
- Honduras finally had their elections – with a big voter turnout. Conservative Porfirio Lobo is the new president.
- Over in the US, Republican Huckabee has found himself in an awkward position. It seems as Governor, he granted clemency to Maurice Clemmons some nine years ago, who most recently just shot and killed four coppers. This will no doubt damage his future bid for the presidency.
- Will the Reserve Bank increase interest rates today? If so, by how much? Place your bets! [Update: Yes they did, to 3.75%]
- In other news, Bernie Fraser says that Australia must adopt a fairer, more progressive tax system.
- The UN is digging in over the Climategate whistleblower scandal, declaring, “The processes in the IPCC are so robust, so inclusive, that even if an author or two has a particular bias it is completely unlikely that bias will find its way into the IPCC report”
- And speaking of climate… that brings us back to the Liberals. The Punch has a live blog of the unfolding saga. Turnbull is still insisting he’ll win.
UPDATE: Abbott wins by 1 vote
UPDATE 2:
So much for Hockey having the numbers – he was out in first round. First round was:
Hockey – 23
Turnbull – 26
Abbott – 35
Second round was Abbott 42, Turnbull 41
The partyroom vote to oppose the ETS in the senate was much clearer with a clear majority opposed: 54-29
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