Our all time top ten
I thought that some of you might enjoy the nostagia of this listing of our all time top ten ALS articles based on the number of times they have been read. Although I certainly don’t think they are the ten best articles we have ever written and I’d be happy to hear of nominations for such an alternate list. Read more »
Could the US dollar collapse?
I’m something of a Ron Paul fan but sometimes he says something that really grates. In the car this morning I was listening to a Ron Paul podcast in which he said he feared the collapse of the US dollar. He went on to say that when currency collapse comes it generally comes very quickly. This grated because it seems quite counter intuitive. The USA is one of the biggest economies in the world. In spite of recession they are still a power house with nearly 25% of all global production occuring within the USA. However I decided I’d give this question some more thought. Read more »
National NZ sends mixed message on tax
Some of the media reports from New Zealand imply that the National lead coalition government will increase GST to pay for a cut mostly to the top income tax rate. In my book that would be daft. New Zealand already has a higher GST than Australia and New Zealand does not have the equivalent of Australias tax free threshold. For a young person starting out the tax system in Australia seems comparatively better in relative terms. Little wonder so many young Kiwis try their luck in Australia.
The National Party youtube message seems to imply a more general cut to income taxes. However raising one tax to cut another is really just shuffling deck chairs. I suppose we will find out the reality in the fullness of time.
The Ring of Fire
I have not really figured out what the ring of fire in the chart below is saying but I thought it looked interesting and topical and colourful so I thought I’d share it.
The Ring of Fire
It is taken from an article at PIMCO (an investment management firm).
Australia isn’t inside the burning hoola hoop and apparently that’s a good thing.
Happy Days!!
Merry Christmas and happy new year to the owners of the roughly 15000 pairs of eyeballs that grace our blog each month. And a belated happy summer solstice to the pagans.
Feel free to give us your thoughts, feelings, plans or predictions for 2010.
Where is Abbott on Internet censorship?
Vocal concern by Liberals changed the Liberal leader and blocked the ETS in the senate. I think we should all make sure that the Liberal party knows what we think of the ALPs Internet censorship legislation. May I suggest that you call or email the office of Tony Abbott and tell him that you oppose the ALPs mandatory Internet filter. I called and emailed his electoral office.
Parliamentary Office (Canberra):-
Tel: (02) 6277 4022
Email: Tony.Abbott.MP@aph.gov.au
Electoral Office (Manly):-
Tel: (02) 9977 6411
http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/Pages/contact.aspx
Snowball Earth
For a different kind of hockey stick check out this article:-
http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=3553
An extract:-
I’m looking at the temperature record as read from this central Greenland ice core. It gives us about as close as we can come to a direct, experimental measurement of temperature at that one spot for the past 50,000 years. As far as I know, the data are not adjusted according to any fancy computer climate model or anything else like that.
So what does it tell us about, say, the past 500 years? (the youngest datum is age=0.0951409 (thousand years before present) — perhaps younger snow doesn’t work so well?)
The charts in this article make for an interesting narrative.
p.s. the title of my post is dedicated to Graeme Bird. 
Saving the world on a shoestring budget
Worried about your carbon footprint? Want to save the planet on a shoestring budget? What to do?
You could vote for the ETS at the next election. Apparently it will reduce your emissions by 5%. Or if you have an average size Australian carbon footprint apparently you could fork out A$6.15 per annum and buy the equivalent 5% of offsets from PopOffsets. Or if you seriously want to save the planet from man made CO2 then elliminate 100% of your footprint for just A$123 per annum.
How do they do it? This is what their website says:-
PopOffsets is unique – the first project in the world that, simply and transparently, enables individuals and organizations to offset their carbon footprint by funding the unmet need for family planning and the removal of the many barriers to women who want smaller families.
Our project recognizes the intrinsic links between increasing CO2 emissions, climate change and the world’s ever-growing population.
Research is indicating that providing a currently unmet need for family planning is the lowest cost way of reducing CO2 emissions and climate change – possibly less than one third of the cost of other technological fixes – without any environmental downsides.
Irrespective of AGW and carbon emissions this is a charity that I could readily support. Donating contraceptives to poor women in poor nations seems like a genereous thing to do whichever way you dice it.
Should children work?
An interesting story.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/03/2761400.htm?section=justin
Quarry owner Dirk Karreman is appealing against a directive from a mining inspector that bans his grandson from using equipment at the Redlands operations on Brisbane’s bayside.
Lawyers for Mr Karreman told the court nine-year-old Dane Karreman operated the loader efficiently and safely, that he had done so on weekends and had more than 500 hours of experience.
Lawyers for the State Government say it is an unnecessary risk.
My father had me and my siblings working on construction sites from about that age. I think it was good for us. On the farm we were driving tractors at quite a young age also. Risky perhaps but better than sitting on your hands.
Up the Jolly Roger
Ahoy there me matey. Some lily-livered sprogs be joinin the great grand political game.
http://apcmag.com/Content.aspx?id=4521
But shiver me timbers! Them membership fees will quickly send em to Davy Jones’ Locker.
Roger Douglas to speak at LDP conference
From the LDP website:-
Sir Roger Douglas, the origin of Rogernomics and New Zealand’s champion of free markets, will be the keynote speaker at the LDP National Conference on 24 January 2010, at the Balmain Leagues Club in Sydney. The conference is open to members, supporters and the media.
This event should be of much interest to LDP members and followers. As New Zealand finance minister during the 80s Roger Douglas slashed tariffs and opened up the New Zealand economy. In many ways he was to New Zealand what Ronald Reagan was to the USA.
Climategate
Obviously the leaked emails from East Anglia University are quite topical. I don’t have much to say here at the moment that hasn’t already been said elsewhere. And I’m really just putting this up so those that want to comment on the issue have a space to do so. However I’ve had plenty to say about it in comments at the John Quiggin blog. So if you want to know my view then take a look.
Here is one interesting twist on how the leak might have occured:-
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/23/the-.crutape-letters%C2%AE-an-alternate-explanation/
Attitudes toward Global Warming
Crikey attempts to quantify the breakdown of public opinion on global warming:-
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/18/global-warming-and-cprs-polling-2/
The executive summary:-
* The trend is moving towards the view that concerns are exaggerated.
* 30% of Australians think concerns about global warming are exaggerated.
* 36% of country folk think concerns about global warming are exaggerated.
* 37% of men think concerns about global warming are exaggerated.
* 46% of Coalition voters think concerns about global warming are exaggerated.
* If you want to wedge the Coalition this appears to be an excellant issue to do it on. It splits the party down the middle.
Tax cuts suddenly fashionable in Europe
A decade ago it seemed that “tax cuts” was an extremely rude phrase in most of Europe. Not any more.
- Germany is looking at tax cuts.
- France is looking at tax cuts.
- Italy is talking tax cuts.
- Finland is cutting taxes.
- Sweden is rolling out tax cuts.
Most of these tax cuts are modest. However it does seems that tax cuts are no longer the height of rudeness in Europe. You can say “tax cut” and get elected.
The EU has a common currency and represents a free trade block. It allows for the free movement of labour. The central government of the EU (they are still in denial about calling it a government) has no direct tax powers. This sort of environment is ripe for a case of virtuous tax competition. It will be interesting to see what knock on response the current round of tax cuts spark.
Al Gore on global warming
When I was a kid I learnt that the surface of the sun is around 6000 degrees celcius. And I also learnt that the centre of the earth was estimated to be of a similar temperature. However according to global warming expert Al Gore it seems that the temperature at the centre of the earth has risen by several million degrees since my childhood. Now that’s an extremely frightening variety of global warming because that would make the core of the earth hotter than the core of the sun.
Okay we all make bloopers from time to time. However if your selling yourself as an expert on global temperature and you wrote a book that promotes geothermal energy as an alternative to fossil fuels, then surely you ought to try and get such basics correct.
HT: Andrew Bolt.
Come join the conspiracy
Andrew Bolt is inviting people to join the conspiracy.
Dear Mr Rudd,
I am an Australian who respects reason and evidence, and who wants this nation to prosper – and not squander its wealth.
On Friday I heard you say there is now a group of ”opponents of climate change action … active in every country” that is “powerful enough to threaten a deal on global climate change both in Copenhagen and beyond”.
I would like to join this group. Can you please tell me where I can enrol?
Signed….
See his blog article for more details.
1982, 1997, 2005
Those numbers in the title all represent years in which serious attempts were made to amend the US constitution so as to make a balanced federal budget a legal requirement*. That these attempts failed isn’t surprising. None the less it is inspiring that efforts continue to be made. In Australia there is no political will notable anywhere that would put in place such a constraint. We don’t even have such a constraint at the state level whilst in the USA it is very common at the state level.
Meanwhile a constitutional clause that caps per capita tax revenue at a fixed real dollar amount, unless revised by the citizens through a referendum, would put a handbreak on growth in tax financed government spending. This is what they call TABOR in Colorado where it has been in operation since 1992. To be effective I think TABOR needs some sort of legal remedy. If actual tax revenues do exceed the cap by a given proportion then taxpayers (citizens and corporations) should be able to claim a equivalent proportion off their tax liabilities for the year.
i) Mandatory balanced budgets – to stop out of control borrowing.
ii) TABOR – to stop out of control taxation
Sadly I think that without constitutional constraints such as these bigger government by autopilot is somewhat inevitable. With them in place I think liberal democracy could look forward to a very long life.
* One disappointing aspect in the proposed US reforms were the exemptions granted during times of war. Whilst this might on the face of it seem quite reasonably I suspect that in practice it would simply increase the government incentive for war.
An ex aussie farmer on property rights
Leon Ashby used to be a farmer. He has given up on that and is now building a new political party (just what Australia needs). He has a three part youtube video explaining the career change. The video below is part two. I thought it was a very practical account of how property rights are being eroded and the consequences of that.
World Government – coming in December?
I haven’t done a fact check on this but it doesn’t sound very nice.
He is also in an interview with Alan Jones.
http://2gb.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6205&Itemid=134
I think the document he is referring to is this one:-
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/awglca7/eng/inf02.pdf
He has obviously struck a cord, or maybe a nerve, because today Kevin Rudd responded. Some extracts:-
And we are just 31 days away from the Copenhagen Conference of Parties – an historic moment to forge a global deal to put a global price on carbon.
Today we are approaching the crossroads. Both these policies are reaching crunch time.
When you strip away all the political rhetoric, all the political excuses, there are two stark choices – action or inaction.
Note that he clearly has a better speech writer than George Bush Junior had. None of this “you’re either with us or against us” nonsense. Later on he makes reference to the video.
Lord Christopher Monckton – a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher – was quoted this week in the Australian press by Janet Albrechtsen. Lord Monckton describes the potential Copenhagen agreement as a plan to set up a transnational “government” on a scale the world has never before seen. Enter the “world government” conspiracy theorists.
Lord Monckton also publicly warned Americans that “in the next few weeks, unless you stop it, your president will sign your freedom, your democracy and your prosperity away forever.”
Janet Albrechtsen, in her understated neo-conservative way, refers to the potential Copenhagen agreement as a UN “power grab”. This gaggle of world government conspiracy theorists are so far out there on the far right, that they rub up next to the global anarchists of the far left.
Are we about to witness the formation of a world government? I’d suggest that such a project is already well established and was well under way before climate change even appeared on the radar. However if you oppose world government I think it is fair to say that this agreement won’t help.
The Great Depression – as explained by Supply Side economics
Today I stumbled on a paper that I first encountered a few years ago. I first saw it just prior to publication when a copy was shared with me by the authors father. The book length document expands on prior work from the Supply Side school of economic thought on the causes of the Great Depression. Given recent economic events I thought it was well worth another look and I thought others might also appreciate it. In my view the Supply Side analysis that it expounds still represents the most coherent explanation for the Great Depression.
History Incognito:
The untold origins of the Roaring Twenties, the Crash, and the Great Depression
By Sean P. Breen
Monday, April 10, 2006This paper offers an answer to three important unanswered questions regarding the economic history of the 1920’s boom, the Crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. This paper supports its answers by creating new historical databases and subjecting the historical data to rigorous modern statistical analysis.
The three questions are: what caused the boom of the 1920’s, what caused the Crash of 1929 and what caused the ensuing Great Depression of 1930’s? The answer, which is detailed in the following pages, is that the antecedent cause for all three questions was the transformation of the United States into the world’s creditor as a result of World War One. This War and the reversal of the Unite States from a debtor nation to become the world’s only remaining banker, created a fragile world economy that demanded continued U.S. lending to support a level of international commerce that could allow repayment of War debts. The Mellon Treasury was masterful in managing the economic dislocation of the War Years and returning the U.S. economy to growth through a progressive and scientific reform of the U.S. tax structure and U.S. debt markets. This was the ‘cause’ of the 1920’s boom. The restructuring of lower peacetime tax rates and the lowering of tariffs promoted expanding trade with Europe that was essential if the European nations were to recover from the War and perform on the War debts owed to the U.S. Enabled by the Mellon treasury, the U.S. loaned money to Europe to buy U.S. products so that they could earn enough from the commerce to continue to perform on War debt and reparations that were in turn owed to the U.S. These policies were successful until the late 1920’s when declining agricultural prices, driven down by technological productive innovation, raised political temperament for agricultural tariffs. The politics of the agricultural tariff movement blossomed into a general tariff movement as all sectors of the economy sought to share in the political largesse. Unfortunately, the resulting Smoot-Hawley tariff destroyed the precarious basis under which the fragile international financial structure functioned. This was the ‘cause’ that resulted in the Crash of 1929. As international tariffs reduced international commerce the international financial system collapsed and the U.S. stock marked crashed. In reaction to the economic collapse U.S. policy retreated from the paradigm of low taxes and open markets to high taxes and closed markets which prevented recovery and so, ‘caused’ the Great Depression.
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